Agriculture is Winning

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Agriculture Is Winning

“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” — Vince Lombardi

It’s easy to get pulled into negative headlines. Input costs are high. Margins are tight. Markets are volatile. Interest rates aren’t what they were four years ago.

But step back for a minute. We are living in a golden age of agriculture.

Yes, there are hard seasons. Yes, there are cycles. But there is also enormous opportunity, innovation, intelligence, and resilience inside this industry. We are in the best business on the planet. And there is a lot to be thankful for.

As Charlie Munger once said, “It is not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.”

This business has never been easy. That’s part of why it wins.

Youth in Agriculture

One of the most encouraging things I see right now is the caliber of young people coming back to the farm.

They are sharp. They are hungry. They want to understand not just how to plant a crop, but how to run an operation. They ask about cost of production. They care about working capital. They want to know how decisions affect the balance sheet.

And they are sponges.

As consolidation continues and the previous generation slowly shifts out of day-to-day operations, we need these individuals. Labor is short. Margins are tight. The stakes are higher than ever. And these young operators are not intimidated by that. They lean into it.

I love working with them because they are often smarter than I am in key areas. They run circles around me in spreadsheets. They pull exact figures from data systems and challenge assumptions. They want to grow.

That is exactly why I’m opening a high-level peer group. If you’re running 2,000 to 6,000 acres, or actively working toward that scale, and you want to sharpen your thinking around finance, growth, and structure, send me an email (grant@farm640.com). I’m only letting a small number in. There will be a waiting list. There will be an application process.

Iron sharpens iron, and high performing individuals run in the same circles.

Technology Is a Force Multiplier

There was a time when you could plant a field and not know if the seed was even going in the ground properly until you refilled the box acres later.

Those days are gone. Today, we grow better crops, cover more acres, and put less physical strain on our bodies because of technology. Precision planting, variable rate applications, real-time data, advanced genetics, and financial tracking systems have changed the game.

As Warren Buffett has said, “Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

Agriculture has been planting those trees for decades. The compounding effect of research, machinery, data, and management systems is real. And the operators who embrace it are building serious competitive advantages.

Technology does not replace good management. But it amplifies it.

Demand Is Real

I don’t believe the next corn rally takes us to $10, but we may have established a new floor above $4.

But let’s not forget where we were. In 2020, cash corn traded at $2.98 per bushel. Not that long ago.

Since then, global demand has chewed through massive carryout numbers. Usage continues to expand across feed, fuel, and export markets. There is still room for innovation and additional demand channels.

At the same time, urbanization continues. Fringe acres may come out of production in certain areas. Government programs may shift incentives. The long-term acreage story is not guaranteed to expand forever.

We are feeding the world. That is not cliché. That is economic reality.

As Henry Ford put it, “Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.”

The goal remains clear. Produce efficiently. Manage risk. Build equity. Stay disciplined.

Land, Interest, and Perspective

I didn’t experience the 1980s farm crisis, so I won’t pretend to speak from experience there.

But I am optimistic.

I believe interest rates will likely stay below 9% over the next decade. I believe widespread deflation of agricultural land values severe enough to break the backbone of the industry is unlikely under current structural conditions.

Today’s operators are more financially aware. They track working capital. They stress-test projections. That doesn’t eliminate risk, it just means we are playing the game with better information.

And information is power.

A Stronger Foundation Than Ever

One of the biggest shifts I see is in communication between generations. The days of “we don’t talk about money” are fading.

Families are discussing equity splits, debt structure, estate plans, and risk tolerance. They understand that the decisions being made today have eight-figure consequences over decades. Silence is no longer an option.

Operators are leaning into their strengths. One handles marketing. Another handles agronomy. Another handles finance. Skill sets are being utilized intentionally.

That is maturity. That is growth. And that is winning.

Summary

Agriculture is not perfect. It never has been. But it is resilient, innovative, and full of high-caliber people who refuse to quit.

To everyone who serves agriculture, farmers, suppliers, lenders, agronomists, mechanics, thank you. This industry works because of you.

Two things:

1. Where do you see agriculture winning right now? I would love to hear your side of it. Send me a message (grant@farm640.com).

2. If you are interested in joining the high-level peer group, email me and I will send you the application form (grant@farm640.com). I’m looking for top producers who are willing to be vulnerable and learn from other top producers. Iron sharpens iron. We can all get better. Because despite the noise, agriculture is winning.

Have a great week!

Grant