Want To Grow?
- Grant Wiese
- Apr 28
- 4 min read
SW Financial Literacy
The sky is not falling, yet...
My response:
The sky is not falling, yet...
However, I have moved my content to focus on improving cash flows because:
1) Some operations (5-15%) need to make tough decisions right now if they want to be in business next year. This probably means selling assets (equipment or land) to reduce debt and overhead for the operation.
2) Nearly every (95%) single projected 2025 cash flow I reviewed this past winter with farmers was negative or breakeven.
So, to avoid the sky falling and seeing bankruptcies rise further the end of the year, cash flow and Working Capital levels have to be factored into every single decision you make on the farm. A wrong move or poor purchase could put the operation back 5 years or more.
I am bullish agriculture because:
1) Commodity prices. The trade war is coming at a perfect time for soybeans (we don't trade any this time of year anyways). There are opportunities for strong prices this winter with tight global ending stocks. We have not seen corn dip to the $4.28 futures price which was roughly the high from 2015-2022. Also, I expect government payments to grow again.
2) Leftover cash. Huge amounts of Working Capital have been lost over the past 2 years. On average, I would say cash levels are still higher than where we from 2018-2022. There are still balance sheets out there that can grow and pick up acres.
3) Land prices. Hanging in there!
4) Interest rates. Hopefully we have seen the high and can find a new normal at around 6%.
5) Lower inflation. The March inflation reading was the lowest we have seen since 2021, but this didn't get much attention due to tariffs. If crop inputs (and living expense) can shift lower, it helps the 2026 cash flow.
6) Dealer inventories. There is a lot of equipment on the lots. Basic supply vs. demand tells me there should be some deals available to the right buyer.
My biggest fear: flooding the market with real estate.
Land sales were up in my area, and prices held. If enough of the 70 year old farmers are tired of seeing their life's work erode away they could try to retire and sell their ground while land prices are still near their peak.
Remember, most of the farm ground is in the hands of the soon-to-be retiring generation. If they choose to sell, agriculture will actually need outside investors to be involved with buying this ground out. There is simply too much of it for farmers to be able to consume at these prices.
If investors are the ones buying all the ground, it puts a further squeeze on the family farm. Investors will rent the ground out to larger operations.
I work with family farms. I am involved with a family farm. So, work on your cash flow to stay in business now and have the opportunity to grow in the future!
NW Call to Action
Want to Grow?
Don't skip these steps.
In 2018, I signed up for my first neighborhood 5K. At the time, I hadn’t run consistently in over eight years. I trained for about a month leading up to it, and even that short distance felt like a mountain. I remember gasping for air halfway through training runs, questioning why I was even doing this. But crossing that finish line — no matter how slow — reignited something I had forgotten: the satisfaction of doing hard things.
After that race, I ran off and on for a few years. Nothing consistent, just a few jogs here and there. But that 5K was the turning point — the moment I mentally re-entered the game. Over time, as I built more consistency and interest in the sport, I started setting bigger goals.
Three years ago, I ran my second half marathon — the first had been a decade earlier, back in college. That race reminded me how much more I was capable of when I committed to training. Last year, I stepped up again and completed a full marathon. That same year, I ran a half in the Colorado mountains and participated in a local marathon relay. The momentum kept building.
Eventually, I set my sights on something I once thought impossible: a 50K ultramarathon. It wasn’t easy, and I didn’t always know if I’d finish — but I did. And I’ve learned that growth always feels like that: uncomfortable, uncertain, and incredibly worth it.
Don’t skip these steps
This is exactly how it works when you're trying to grow your land base or expand your farm operation.
Most farmers start with a small piece — maybe a 40 or 80-acre rental, or a modest land purchase. That’s the equivalent of the 5K. It feels like a big deal at the time — and it is. It’s the first leap. It’s supposed to be hard.
But with time, experience, and improved financial management, you become capable of more. You start bidding on bigger tracts. You take on a long-term lease or explore vertical integration. That’s the half marathon.
Eventually, if you stay in the game, you’ll find yourself doing what once seemed unimaginable. I work with producers who feel paralyzed at the thought of placing a $1 million bid on a farm. I also work with young operators who manage a team of 10 and regularly negotiate $5 million deals. That’s the ultra.
Conclusion
Growth doesn’t happen overnight. It takes time, focus, and a willingness to show up even when it’s uncomfortable. But just like running, it’s a process that rewards those who put in the miles.
Do you want to grow? You can’t skip those first steps. You must put the time in. But depending on your work ethic and goals, you can get to the ultra in 5 years or take 30 years to get there. That part is up to you. The other day, I was catching up with a lender from a different bank. In the middle of our conversation, they brought up one of my customers—a local farmer they had been observing from the outside.
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Have a great week!
Grant
